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VIG Newsletter July 6 2024 Update

VIG Newsletter July 6 2024 Update

September Rate Cut Expectations Increase!

Recap

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite set fresh all-time highs Friday due to solid gains in the mega-cap space. There was a negative bias under the index surface, though, following the June Employment Situation Report.

The report went the market's way in terms of rate cut expectations, but also stoked some concerns about lower earnings growth in the event that softening labor market conditions translates into lower consumer spending.

The Vig Co. portfolio was up this week.

Performance (Weekly/YTD)

VIG Co. +1.33% / +14.24%

SPY +1.91% / +17.43%

VIG Co. Portfolio Holdings (Allocation).

KIAM V3. (100%)

Notes/Charts

Here is what we are watching today.

KIAM V3 performance this week. We are slightly long heading into Monday’s session.

Sectors. You can see semiconductors, tech and, consumer discretionary led the way. Homebuilders were the weakest.

Fed Target Rate Probabilities For September Increased from 57% to 72% over the past week. The question will now be, if the yield curve becomes uninverted will we see a greater likely good of recession?

Plan

I did a lot of allocation and asset testing over the past week. I hope this will lead to another change for KIAM in the coming weeks.

Large Banks kick off earnings season at the end of next week. July 23rd Google, Microsoft and Tesla all report.

Have a great weekend.

We will follow the math.

Chris

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