VIG Newsletter July 27 Update

Seasonal Bounce to September?

July 27, 2024

Recap

The stock market had a mixed showing this week. The S&P 500 (-0.8%) and Nasdaq Composite (-2.1%) logged declines since last Friday while the Russell continued its recent action, jumping 3.5% this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was also higher, up 0.8%.

The underperformance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite was due to ongoing profit-taking activity in the mega-cap and semiconductor spaces.

The Vig Co. portfolio was down this week.

Performance (Weekly/YTD)

VIG Co. -2.7% / +2.66%

SPY -.83% / +15.27%

VIG Co. Portfolio Holdings (Allocation).

VIG V4 (100%)

Notes/Charts

Here are a few things we are watching.

Seasonal info from Carson Research. You can see we followed this path lower in July. Will we see a rebound until mid-August? A weak September and October. Then, a strong finish to the year?

More info from Carson Research. You can see that historically we average nearly six 2 percent drops a year. You can see this year we are well below average. I would expect more volatility going forward - especially in September.

We will watch key earnings this week on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. This will set the near-term trend.

Semiconductors 2-hour chart. Do we have a near-term bottom? You can see the quick dip and strong reversal on extreme volume this past Thursday. This would suggest a “buy the dip” event and a near-term bottom.

QQQ weekly. QQQ dropped nearly 10% over the past 3 weeks - a common correction. We exactly tagged the 20-week moving average and rebounded - perhaps indicating a near-term bottom.

Plan

We will follow the math.

Chris

You can join the Vig Co. Newsletter here. Vig Co. When you join you will be sent the link to the KIAM v. 2.0 portfolio. KIAM is managed using Composer Trade.

We are not affiliated with Composer and do not receive any fees from them. We are simply using their tools.

GET 25% Off Composer Annual Fee.

With this sharing code to join Composer, you will receive you will get 25% off your Composer Account Fee!

CODE: jRp2ko1-TRADE

And of course, you can unsubscribe anytime.

Market information from Bloomberg, ETRADE, Composer, Koyfin, and StockCharts.com.